Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
