Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
